FEINBERG FORECAST: 'War Horse,' 'Extremely Loud,' 'Dragon Tattoo,' 'Iron Lady' and 'Blood and Honey' Remain Question Marks

JoJo WhildenMargin Call What follows is my latest assessment of all of the high-profile Oscar categories, along with commentary about what/who has the most positive and negative momentum at the moment in each of them. I welcome your thoughts in the comments section at the bottom of the post.our editor recommendsBehind the Scenes of THR's Actress Roundtable 2011'J. Edgar' Premiere Red Carpet ArrivalsThe Help's Retro, Southern Style BEST PICTURE Frontrunners The Artist (The Weinstein Company, 11/23, TBA, trailer) The Descendants (Fox Searchlight, 11/23, R, trailer) The Help (Disney, 8/12, PG-13, trailer) Midnight in Paris (Sony Pictures Classics, 5/20, PG-13, trailer) War Horse (Disney, 12/25, PG-13, trailer) Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (Warner Brothers, 12/25, TBA, trailer) The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo (Sony, 12/21, TBA, trailer) Moneyball (Columbia, 9/23, TBA, trailer) J. Edgar (Warner Brothers, 11/11, R, trailer) The Ides of March (Sony, 10/14, TBA, trailer) Major Threats Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy (Focus Features, 12/9, TBA, trailer) The Tree of Life (Fox Searchlight, 5/27, PG-13, trailer) Shame (Fox Searchlight, 12/2, NC-17, trailer) Margin Call (Roadside Attractions, 10/21, R, trailer) NEW Hugo (Paramount, 11/23, TBA, trailer) The Iron Lady (The Weinstein Company, 12/30, TBA, teaser) 50/50 (Summit, 9/30, R, trailer) Young Adult (Paramount, 12/9, TBA, trailer) Possibilities Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows -- Part 2 (Warner Brothers, 7/15, PG-13, trailer) Super 8 (Paramount, 6/10, PG-13, trailer) In the Land of Blood and Honey (FilmDistrict, 12/23, R, trailer) Drive (FilmDistrict, 9/16, R, trailer) Beginners (Focus Features, 6/3, R, trailer) NEW Carnage (Sony Pictures Classics, 12/16, R, trailer) The Adventures of Tintin (Paramount, 12/21, TBA, trailer) We Bought a Zoo (20th Century Fox, 12/23, TBA, trailer) After a mixed-response to its first screening at the NY Film Festival as a not-yet-finished film, Martin Scorsese's now-completed 3-D adaptation has been going over much more strongly of late. One never wants to bet against a project that stars Meryl Streep, but it has taken an unsettlingly long time for Phyllida Lloyd's biopic of Margaret Thatcher to get finished, trailered, and screened. BEST DIRECTOR Frontrunners Alexander Payne (The Descendants) Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist) Woody Allen (Midnight in Paris) Steven Spielberg (War Horse) Tate Taylor (The Help) Major Threats Stephen Daldry (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close) David Fincher (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo) Bennett Miller (Moneyball) Clint Eastwood (J. Edgar) George Clooney (The Ides of March) Terrence Malick (The Tree of Life) Martin Scorsese (Hugo) Possibilities Tomas Alfredson (Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy) J.C. Chandor (Margin Call) NEW Steve McQueen (Shame) Phyllida Lloyd (The Iron Lady) Jason Reitman (Young Adult) Roman Polanski (Carnage) Nicolas Winding Refn (Drive) Steven Spielberg (The Adventures of Tintin) Cameron Crowe (We Bought a Zoo) PHOTOS: Behind the Scenes of THR's Actress Roundtable 2011 He is not well known among his peers -- indeed, this was his feature directorial debut -- but strong best picture contenders like The Help almost always carry along their director on their coattails, and his film certainly fits that description. Tintin's North American premiere at AFI Fest confirmed that it is a film with huge box-office potential -- and that its helmer's chances for a seventh best director nod rest solely with War Horse. BEST ACTOR Frontrunners Jean Dujardin (The Artist) George Clooney (The Descendants) Brad Pitt (Moneyball) Leonardo DiCaprio (J. Edgar) Michael Fassbender (Shame) Major Threats Michael Shannon (Take Shelter) Gary Oldman (Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy) Woody Harrelson (Rampart) Ryan Gosling (The Ides of March) Ryan Gosling (Drive) Joseph Gordon-Levitt (50/50) Ralph Fiennes (Coriolanus) Possibilities Paul Giamatti (Win Win) Daniel Craig (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo) Owen Wilson (Midnight in Paris) Demian Bichir (A Better Life) Thomas Horn (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close) Jeremy Irvine (War Horse) Zachary Quinto (Margin Call) NEW Matt Damon (We Bought a Zoo) True, he still can't speak much English, but that hasn't kept him from attending virtually every possible gladhanding opportunity, just like Roberto Benigni and Marion Cotillard in years past, and things worked out quite nicely for them. I'm hearing that the star of War Horse -- which will begin screening for press at the end of this month -- is not its leading man (who apparently does a perfectly fine job with limited screen time), but rather its title character. BEST ACTRESS Frontrunners Viola Davis (The Help) Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady) Michelle Williams (My Week with Marilyn) Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs) Rooney Mara (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo) Major Threats Keira Knightley (A Dangerous Method) Elizabeth Olsen (Martha Marcy May Marlene) Charlize Theron (Young Adult) Michelle Yeoh (The Lady) Tilda Swinton (We Need to Talk About Kevin) Possibilities Felicity Jones (Like Crazy) Mia Wasikowska (Jane Eyre) Kirsten Dunst (Melancholia) Adepero Oduye (Pariah) Ellen Barkin (Another Happy Day) Rachel Weisz (The Whistleblower) Vera Farmiga (Higher Ground) Nobody has been more a trouper on the awards trail this year than the five-time nominee, who has hobknobbed around the world on behalf of her film (she's picked up no fewer than three career achievement awards at this point), and who was a hit at Saturday's Governors Awards. Unfortunately, Cannes' best actress winner has been unable to get out from under the shadow of her director Lars von Trier's Nazi-sympathizing comments, which come up in conversation every time her film or performance does. BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR Frontrunners Christopher Plummer (Beginners) Albert Brooks (Drive) Stanley Tucci (Margin Call) NEW Jeremy Irons (Margin Call) NEW Kevin Spacey (Margin Call) NEW Major Threats Max von Sydow (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close) Armie Hammer (J. Edgar) Kenneth Branagh (My Week with Marilyn) Tom Hanks (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close) John Hawkes (Martha Marcy May Marlene) Jonah Hill (Moneyball) Patton Oswalt (Young Adult) Nick Nolte (Warrior) Possibilities Andy Serkis (Rise of the Planet of the Apes) Christoph Waltz (Carnage) John C. Reilly (Carnage) Jim Broadbent (The Iron Lady) Brad Pitt (The Tree of Life) George Clooney (The Ides of March) Viggo Mortensen (A Dangerous Method) The last few years have proven that actors are rewarded in the supporting actor category for being bad -- or at least playing bad boys, like Brooks's homocidal psychopath. See: Javier Bardem, Heath Ledger, Christoph Waltz, and Christian Bale. There are few better actors than Mortensen, but this intellectually-demanding film and his brief but nuanced performance in it both seem to have gotten lost in the shuffle. BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS Frontrunners Octavia Spencer (The Help) Berenice Bejo (The Artist) Shailene Woodley (The Descendants) Jessica Chastain (The Help) Janet McTeer (Albert Nobbs) Major Threats Vanessa Redgrave (Coriolanus) Sandra Bullock (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close) Melissa McCarthy (Bridesmaids) Carey Mulligan (Shame) Evan Rachel Wood (The Ides of March) Judy Greer (The Descendants) Jessica Chastain (The Tree of Life) Possibilities Jodie Foster (Carnage) Kate Winslet (Carnage) Marion Cotillard (Midnight in Paris) Emily Watson (War Horse) Judi Dench (J. Edgar) Scarlett Johansson (We Bought a Zoo) True, the Emmy winner's performance is not of the sort that usually registers with the Academy -- but the same was true of Robert Downey Jr.'s in Tropic Thunder, and he made the cut. Likability matters, too, and McCarthy, like Downey, oozes it. The Dame has appeared this year in three noteworthy films -- Jane Eyre, My Week with Marilyn, and J. Edgar -- which is pretty amazing for a 76-year-old. Unfortunately, none of her parts have had quite enough meat on the bones to merit a nomination. BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY Frontrunners Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, Jim Rash (The Descendants) Tate Taylor (The Help) Richard Curtis, Lee Hall (War Horse) Eric Roth (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close) Steven Zaillian (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo) Major Threats Stan Chervin, Aaron Sorkin, Steven Zaillian (Moneyball) George Clooney, Grant Heslov (The Ides of March) Bridget O'Connor, Peter Straughan (Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy) John Logan (Hugo) Pedro Almodovar (The Skin I Live In) Hossein Amini (Drive) Possibilities Roman Polanski (Carnage) Christopher Hampton (A Dangerous Method) Cameron Crowe, Aline Brosh McKenna (We Bought a Zoo) James Ellroy, Oren Moverman (Rampart) John Logan (Coriolanus) There probably isn't any category in which The Descendants is more likely to be recognized than this one -- Payne, who is about as revered a screenwriter as there is, was nominated in it twice before, winning for Sideways (2004). I saw this film on the opening night of the NY Film Festival and liked it quite a lot, but the general consensus seems to be that it pales in comparison to God of Carnage, the Tony winning stage play that inspired it. BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY Frontrunners Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist) Woody Allen (Midnight in Paris) Dustin Lance Black (J. Edgar) J.C. Chandor (Margin Call) NEW Mike Mills (Beginners) Major Threats Sean Durkin (Martha Marcy Mae Marlene) Abi Morgan, Steve McQueen (Shame) Terrence Malick (The Tree of Life) Diablo Cody (Young Adult) Tom McCarthy, Joe Tiboni (Win Win) James Ward Byrkit, John Logan, Gore Verbinski (Rango) Drake Doremus, Ben York Jones (Like Crazy) Possibilities Annie Mumolo, Kristen Wiig (Bridesmaids) Will Reiser (50/50) Asghar Farhadi (A Separation) Jeff Nichols (Take Shelter) Abi Morgan (The Iron Lady) J.J. Abrams (Super 8) Dee Rees (Pariah) His poignant script is based largely on his own experiences -- for instance, his own elderly father, like the character played by Plummer in the film, came out of the closet to him shortly before dying of cancer -- a talking point that plays very well in Q&As and interviews. Very few foreign language films have managed to score an Oscar nod outside of the foreign language category, and this worthy winner of the Berlin Film Festival seems unlikely to buck that trend. BEST ANIMATED FILM (FEATURE) Frontrunners Rango (Paramount, 3/4, PG, trailer) The Adventures of Tintin (Paramount, 12/21, PG, trailer) Cars 2 (Disney, 6/24, G, trailer) Happy Feet 2 (Warner Brothers, 11/18, PG, trailer) Puss in Boots (DreamWorks, 11/4, PG, trailer) Major Threats Arthur Christmas (Sony, 11/23, PG, trailer) Kung Fu Panda 2 (DreamWorks, 5/26, PG, trailer) Rio (20th Century Fox, 4/15, G, trailer) Possibilities Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chip-Wrecked (20th Century Fox, 12/11, TBA, trailer) Winnie the Pooh (Disney, 7/15, G, trailer) The Smurfs (Sony, 7/29, PG, trailer) The Lion of Judah (Animated Family Films, 6/3, TBA, trailer) BEST DOCUMENTARY FILM (FEATURE) Frontrunners The Interrupters (The Cinema Guild, 7/29, TBA, trailer) Project Nim (Roadside Attractions, 7/8, PG-13, trailer) Senna (Producers Distribution Agency, 8/12, PG-13, trailer) Buck (IFC Films, 6/17, PG, trailer) Into the Abyss (Sundance Selects, 11/11, TBA, TBA) Major Threats If a Tree Falls (Oscilloscope, 6/22, TBA, trailer) Being Elmo: A Puppeteer's Journey (Submarine Deluxe, TBA, trailer) Bill Cunningham NY (Zeitgeist Films, 3/16, TBA, trailer) The Island President (Samuel Goldwyn Films, 11/8, TBA, TBA) Better This World (Bullfrog Films, 8/26, TBA, trailer) Koran by Heart (HBO Documentary Films, TBA, TBA, trailer) Tabloid (Sundance Selects, 7/15, R, trailer) Page One: Inside the NY Times (Magnolia, 6/24, TBA, trailer) We Were Here (Red Flag Releasing, 9/?, TBA, trailer) Hell and Back Again (Docurama Films, 10/5, TBA, trailer) Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory (HBO Documentary Films, TBA, TBA, trailer) Possibilities The Rescuers (Menemsha Films, TBA, TBA, trailer) The Bully Project (The Weinstein Company, TBA, TBA, trailer) Corman's World: Exploits of a Hollywood Rebel (Anchor Bay Films, 10/16, TBA, trailer) Magic Trip (Magnolia, 8/5, TBA, trailer) The Black Power Mixtape 1967-1975 (Sundance Selects, 9/9, TBA, trailer) Hot Coffee (HBO Documentaries, 6/27, TBA, trailer) Pearl Jam Twenty (Abramorama, 9/20, R, trailer) Bobby Fischer Against the World (HBO Documentary Films, TBA, TBA, TBA) The Whale (Paladin, TBA, TBA, TBA) Revenge of the Electric Car (Westmidwest Productions, TBA, TBA, trailer) The Greatest Movie Ever Sold (Sony Pictures Classics, 4/22, PG-13, trailer) Still Seeking Domestic Distribution Bombay Beach The Carrier Footnote Semper Fi: Always Faithful (trailer) BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM Frontrunners A Separation (Iran) Where Do We Go Now? (Lebanon) Le Havre (Finland) A Simple Life (Hong Kong) In Darkness (Poland) Major Threats Monsieur Lazhar (Canada) Declaration of War (France) Footnote (Israel) Pina (Germany) The Flowers of War (China) Happy, Happy (Norway) Terra Firma (Italy) Sonny Boy (Netherlands) Superclasico (Denmark) Possibilities Bullhead (Belgium) NEW Black Bread (Spain) Postcard (Japan) Omar Killed Me (Morocco) The Turin Horse (Hungary) Once Upon a Time in Anatolia (Turkey) Montevideo: Taste of a Dream (Serbia) Morgen (Romania) War Horse The Help J. Edgar